Global Unemployment Threat To Stability Worldwide ((FULL))

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Misconceptions, negative attitudes and physical barriers to basic mobility result in the exclusion of many people from full participation in society. Children with spinal cord injury are less likely than their peers to start school, and once enrolled, less likely to advance. Adults with spinal cord injury face similar barriers to economic participation, with a global unemployment rate of more than 60%.

The full quarterly Operation Inherent Resolve report for April 1, 2020-June 30, 2020 is 113 pages long, and it covers all of the aspects of the U.S. military and civil fight against ISIS. However, even if one ignores the portions that deal with the challenges posed by cutting U.S. forces, the need to create effective local antiterrorism forces in each country, the political and diplomatic challenges, and the need to create civil stability, the continuing threat is still all too clear.

Evidence show that IGAD member countries are the most political unstable countries in the world. On the other hand, literatures on the subject reveal that youth unemployment contributes the most towards the political instability across the world. Nonetheless, investigation on the effect of youth unemployment on political instability particularly in IGAD member countries is very scanty. Thus, the objective of the current study is to investigate the effect of youth unemployment on political instability in IGAD member countries. For this purpose, the necessary secondary data is collected from ICRG, WDI and ILO on five selected IGAD member countries. To find out the effect of youth unemployment on political instability; fixed effect model, instrumental variable fixed effect model and one step system GMM estimation on dynamic panel data have been employed. The analysis result revealed that there is a significant effect of youth unemployment on political instability in IGAD member countries. This region specifically needs a sound youth employment policy not only for the sake of youths but also for the relief of government reducing the burden of controlling continuous internal instabilities. Moreover, in region-wise the IGAD countries better to have common youth employment creation policies so that they can manage the internal conflicts arises here and then.

Unemployment is a worldwide phenomenon and it is not a new issue to discuss, but it is still a serious problem that affects the economic, political, and social performances of nations throughout the world (Azeng & Yogo, Citation2015). In IGAD1 countries, despite the recent economic growth rates and positive activities recorded in education and health; a higher rate of youth unemployment and the slow pace with which new jobs are created remain critical challenges of the region (Ahmed, Citation2017).

As we observed from the above figure (Figure 1), we have concluded that the youth unemployment rate of Ethiopia is varying from year to year with different increasing and decreasing rate. For example, during the year 1992 to the year 1995, it increased from 4.4% to 4.8%. Also, the change from year 1999 to 2010 has a great variation; the youth unemployment rate continuously declines (i.e. 5.4% to 3.6%). The change in the year 1995 to 1999 and the year 2010 to 2015 is not significantly varied and the graph looks like a smooth curve. From the year 2011 to 2016, the youth unemployment rate starts to decline from 3.0% to 2.8%. Youth unemployment and political instability: evidence from IGAD member countriesAll authorsYemareshet Hailu Demeke online:29 May 2022Figure 1. Trend on Youth Unemployment in IGAD Countries.

Without a doubt, unemployment is a threat to political stability in Africa. Most of the time unemployment gives birth to political instability in a country; unemployed person can easily participate in antisocial activities. They consider that government is worthless, which fails to provide them work. In Africa, where the dependence ratio on government is very high, people tend to resort to any means to retaliate to get their issues addressed (Riechi, Citation2019).

Sylor (Citation2016) undertook a study on the unemployment and implications for social and political conflict in Zimbabwe. The study showed that for the last 3 decades, Zimbabwean youth have been involved as main factors behind the social unrest and violent activities in the country. This paper argues dissatisfaction and frustration of youth especially graduate urban youth are regarded as one of the major threats to social and political instability. The paper also presents various challenges Zimbabwean youth face and their implications to social and political conflict. The paper discussed the major causes of youth unemployment such as: Sluggish investment and growth, weak export performance, population growth rate, geography, poor macroeconomic policy, and the growth path (depend on commodity products). The paper suggests that there should be land reform, but land reform without the creation of youth employment is only leading to the alienation of youth groups that will fight against the establishment.

Another study by (Riechi, Citation2019) addresses the effect of youth unemployment on security in Kenya for the case of Kwale County. The study used both qualitative and quantitative research approaches and the investigation utilized a descriptive research design. Qualitative research design was used and the target population was leaders drawn from the youth, police, Kwale County government officials, national government administration officers in Kwale County, and the religious sector. The study utilized both primary and secondary data. The researcher used questionnaires for the majority of leaders, interviews for key informants, and focused group discussion for the youth leaders. The study has argued that youth unemployment in Kwale County has been securitized with a majority of leaders terming unemployed youth as a threat to security. Therefore, the paper concludes that unemployed youth end up engaging in crime and another effect of unemployment is hopelessness leading to drug and alcohol abuse, similar findings with Dike (Citation2014).

The reviews conducted above indicate that previous studies have made an effort to examine the effect of youth unemployment on political instability. Despite the effort made to address the subject in other regions of the world, to the best of our knowledge no effort is made to address the issue in IGAD member countries. The region has eight countries that are highly characterized by civil wars, economic, social, and political instabilities, almost all nations of the region are included in the list of the world top unstable nations. At the same time, two-third of the total population is below the age of 25, and unemployment is the main macroeconomic problem in the region. As such investigating the effect of youth unemployment on political instability is crucial to guide the effort to address political instability in the region. Previous studies on the subject have found inconsistent result which necessities further investigation on the subject. Besides, this particular concern is not researched in IGAD member countries. Therefore, this paper investigated the effect of youth unemployment on political instability in selected IGAD countries using recent panel data (1992 to 2018).

The study used secondary data sources. The data on youth unemployment is collected from the ILO key indicators of the Labour Market (KILM). And the data from the International country risk guide measures (ICRG) database on political and economic risk, and we use the Risk of Internal Conflict as a measure of political instability (Azeng & Yogo, Citation2013).

Table 1 summarizes descriptive statistics, which are the mean, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values for the dependent variable, political instability (Polins) and the independent variables; youth unemployment (Youn), government stability (Govsta), religious tensions (Religten), Corruption (Corr), ethnic tensions (Ethten), GDP per capita (GDPper), Annual inflation rate (Annin).Youth unemployment and political instability: evidence from IGAD member countriesAll authorsYemareshet Hailu Demeke online:29 May 2022Table 1. Descriptive statistics

Table 2 shows the result of the OLS Fixed effect estimation between Political instability, Youth unemployment, government stability, religious tensions, corruption, ethnic tensions, GDP per capita, and Inflation. The result shows that all variables except corruption, religious tensions and GDP per capita are statistically significant. Government stability and ethnic tensions are statistically significant at 1% level of significance while youth unemployment and inflation are statistically significant at 5% level of significance.Youth unemployment and political instability: evidence from IGAD member countriesAll authorsYemareshet Hailu Demeke online:29 May 2022Table 2. Youth unemployment and political instability, OLS fixed effects

Youth unemployment and Inflation and ethnic tensions have a positive relationship with the political instability. And government stability is positively related to political instability. The result in the table below reveals that when the youth unemployment rate increases by 1%; it leads to political instability point to decrease by 16%. This means an increase in youth unemployment leads to political instability. If all the explanatory variables are set to be zero, Political instability would be 3.5 for a given country. The fixed-effect model could be written as:

In the above estimation, we firstly estimated using a simple OLS fixed effect estimator. It could happen that country with a high level of political instability also experiences a high level of unemployment. In this vein, OLS estimates are biased since the unemployment rate may be correlated with some unobservable. To deal with the endogenous bias, we resort to the instrumental variable approach. 153554b96e

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Global unemployment poses a significant threat to stability worldwide, as rising joblessness can lead to increased social unrest, economic inequality, and political instability. High unemployment rates often result in decreased consumer spending, hindering economic growth and recovery. Additionally, the frustration of unemployed individuals can fuel extremism and undermine democratic institutions, creating a cycle of instability that can affect nations globally. Addressing this issue requires coordinated efforts to stimulate job creation and provide skills training to adapt to changing labor markets.

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